INTRODUCTION: Infection with SARS-CoV-2 may progress to severe pulmonary disease, COVID-19. Currently, patients admitted to hospital because of COVID-19 have better prognosis than during the first period of the pandemic due to improved treatment. However, the overall societal susceptibility of being infected makes it pivotal to prevent severe courses of disease to avoid high mortality rates and collapse of the healthcare systems. Positive expiratory pressure (PEP) self-care is used in chronic pulmonary disease and has been shown to prevent pneumonia in a high-risk cohort of patients with leukaemia. PEP flute self-care to prevent respiratory deterioration and hospitalisation in early COVID-19: a randomised trial (The PEP-CoV trial) examines the effectiveness on respiratory symptoms and need of hospital admission by regular PEP flute use among non-hospitalised individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 symptoms.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this randomised controlled trial, we hypothesise that daily PEP flute usage as add-on to usual care is superior to usual care as regards symptom severity measured by the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) at 30-day follow-up (primary outcome) and hospital admission through register data (secondary outcome). We expect to recruit 400 individuals for the trial. Participants in the intervention group receive a kit of 2 PEP flutes and adequate resistances and access to instruction videos. A telephone hotline offers possible contact to a nurse. The eight-item CAT score measures cough, phlegm, chest tightness, dyspnoea, activities of daily living at home, feeling safe at home despite symptoms, sleep quality and vigour. The CAT score is measured daily in both intervention and control arms by surveys prompted through text messages.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was registered prospectively at www.clinicaltrials.gov on 27 August 2020 (NCT04530435). Ethical approval was granted by the local health research ethics committee (Journal number: H-20035929) on 23 July 2020. Enrolment of participants began on 6 October 2020. Results will be published in scientific journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04530435; Pre-results.

OBJECTIVE: Cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking are preventable risk factors in surgery. It is unknown whether intervening on these two risk factors also have an effect on other lifestyles. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to compare the effect of an intensive alcohol and smoking cessation intervention on other lifestyles (malnutrition, obesity, and physical inactivity) with treatment as usual, among patients scheduled for radical cystectomy. The secondary aim was to evaluate associations between successful quitting and changes in other lifestyles.

DATA SOURCES: Data on 94 patients with bladder cancer undergoing radical cystectomy originated from the STOP-OP study, a randomized intervention trial that enrolled patients from four Danish hospitals. Patients were enrolled between November 2014 and July 2017.

CONCLUSION: We found no significant differences regarding the three lifestyle factors; risk of malnutrition, obesity, and physical inactivity between patients in the intervention and standard care at the end of the intervention at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Also, there were no significant associations between successful quitters and non-quitters for alcohol and smoking and the other three lifestyles; risk of malnutrition, obesity, and physical inactivity.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE: Findings from this study show that cancer surgery is a good opportunity to address lifestyle changes and that more research into the effect of multimodal interventions are needed. Guidelines on how to support patients to change lifestyle in relation to surgery should be part of nursing practice.

BACKGROUND: Contextual effects (i.e., placebo response) refer to all health changes resulting from administering an apparently inactive treatment. In a randomized clinical trial (RCT), the overall treatment effect (i.e., the post-treatment effect in the intervention group) can be regarded as the true effect of the intervention plus the impact of contextual effects. This meta-research was conducted to examine the average proportion of the overall treatment effect attributable to contextual effects in RCTs across clinical conditions and treatments and explore whether it varies with trial contextual factors.

METHODS: Data was extracted from trials included in the main meta-analysis from the latest update of the Cochrane review on "Placebo interventions for all clinical conditions" (searched from 1966 to March 2008). Only RCTs reported in English having an experimental intervention group, a placebo comparator group, and a no-treatment control group were eligible.

RESULTS: In total, 186 trials (16,655 patients) were included. On average, 54% (0.54, 95%CI 0.46 to 0.64) of the overall treatment effect was attributable to contextual effects. The contextual effects were higher for trials with blinded outcome assessor and concealed allocation. The contextual effects appeared to increase proportional to the placebo effect, lower mean age, and proportion of females.

CONCLUSION: Approximately half of the overall treatment effect in RCTs seems attributable to contextual effects rather than to the specific effect of treatments. As the study did not include all important contextual factors (e.g., patient-provider interaction), the true proportion of contextual effects could differ from the study's results. However, contextual effects should be considered when assessing treatment effects in clinical practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42019130257 . Registered on April 19, 2019.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate biomechanical changes in lumbar disc herniations.

METHODS: Patients with lumbar disc herniation verified on a 1.5-3-T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner were imaged in a weight-bearing 0.25-T MRI scanner in (1) standing position, (2) conventional supine position with relative lumbar flexion, and (3) supine position with a forced lumbar extension by adding a lumbar pillow. The L2-S1 lordosis angle, the disc cross-sectional area, the disc cross-sectional diameter, and the spinal canal cross-sectional diameter were measured for each position. Disc degeneration and nerve root compression were graded, and the pain intensity was reported during each scan position.

RESULTS: Forty-three herniated discs in 37 patients (36.7 ± 11.9 years) were analyzed in each position. The L2-S1 lumbar angle increased in the standing position (mean difference [MD]: 5.61°, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.44 to 7.78) and with the lumbar pillow in the supine position (MD: 14.63°, 95% CI: 11.71 to 17.57), both compared with the conventional supine position. The herniated disc cross-sectional area and diameter increased during standing compared with during conventional supine position. No changes were found in the spinal canal cross-sectional diameter between positions. Higher nerve root compression grades for paracentral herniations were found during standing compared with during conventional supine position. This was neither found with a lumbar pillow nor for central herniations in any position compared with conventional supine.

CONCLUSION: Disc herniations displayed dynamic behavior with morphological changes in the standing position, leading to higher nerve root compression grades for paracentral herniated discs.

KEY POINTS: • Lumbar herniated discs increased in size in the axial plane during standing. • Increased nerve root compression grades for paracentral herniated discs were found during standing. • Weight-bearing MRI may increase the diagnostic sensitivity of nerve root compression in lumbar disc herniations.

This paper provides a review of the literature regarding methods for constructing prediction intervals for counting variables, with particular focus on those whose distributions are Poisson or derived from Poisson and with an over-dispersion property. Independent and identically distributed models and regression models are both considered. The motivating problem for this review is that of predicting the number of daily and cumulative cases or deaths attributable to COVID-19 at a future date. This article is categorized under: Applications of Computational Statistics > Clinical Trials Statistical Learning and Exploratory Methods of the Data Sciences > Modeling Methods Statistical Models > Generalized Linear Models.

This register-based national cohort study of 206,900 individuals investigated whether prenatal exposure to small extra doses of vitamin D from fortified margarine prevented inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) later in life; whether the risk of IBD varied according to month or season of birth; and finally, whether there was an interaction between exposure to extra D vitamin and month or season of birth. Fortification of margarine with vitamin D was mandatory in Denmark from the mid-1930s until 1st June 1985, when it was abolished. Two entire birth cohorts, each including two years, were defined: one exposed and one unexposed to the fortification policy for the entire gestation. All individuals were followed for 30 years from the day of birth for an IBD diagnosis in Danish hospital registers. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Odds for IBD was lower among those exposed to extra D vitamin compared to those unexposed, OR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79; 0.95). No association with month or season of birth was found. However, estimates suggested that particularly children born during autumn may have benefitted from the effect of small extra doses of vitamin D. This is, to our knowledge, the first study to explore if prenatal exposure to vitamin D from fortification influenced the risk of IBD. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to small amounts of extra vitamin D from food fortification may protect against the development of IBD before 30 years of age.

Based on a large volume of observational scientific studies and many summary papers, a high consumption of meat and processed meat products has been suggested to have a harmful effect on human health. These results have led guideline panels worldwide to recommend to the general population a reduced consumption of processed meat and meat products, with the overarching aim of lowering disease risk, especially of cancer. We revisited and updated the evidence base, evaluating the methodological quality and the certainty of estimates in the published systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined the association between processed meat consumption and the risk of cancer at different sites across the body, as well as the overall risk of cancer mortality. We further explored if discrepancies in study designs and risks of bias could explain the heterogeneity observed in meta-analyses. In summary, there are severe methodological limitations to the majority of the previously published systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined the consumption of processed meat and the risk of cancer. Many lacked the proper assessment of the methodological quality of the primary studies they included, or the literature searches did not fulfill the methodological standards needed in order to be systematic and transparent. The primary studies included in the reviews had a potential risk for the misclassification of exposure, a serious risk of bias due to confounding, a moderate to serious risk of bias due to missing data, and/or a moderate to serious risk of selection of the reported results. All these factors may have potentially led to the overestimation of the risk related to processed meat intake across all cancer outcomes. Thus, with the aim of lowering the risk of cancer, the recommendation to reduce the consumption of processed meat and meat products in the general population seems to be based on evidence that is not methodologically strong.